Will the RBA Raise Interest Rates Again in November? What Another 0.25% Increase Could Cost Your Mortgage

Updated Friday 23 October 2026 (AEDT). Australian mortgage holders face another important Reserve Bank decision on Tuesday 3 November 2026, following warnings that the inflation outlook has deteriorated. The official RBA cash rate is currently 4.60% after a 0.25 percentage-point increase in September. A further increase to 4.85% is a possibility being debated by economists and financial markets—but the RBA has not made or announced a November decision.

For borrowers, a quarter-point rise could be meaningful. In an illustrative principal-and-interest mortgage with $600,000 outstanding, 25 years remaining and a variable loan rate rising from 6.00% to 6.25%, the monthly repayment would increase from about $3,866 to $3,958—roughly $92 extra per month, or $1,106 over a full 12 months. That outcome assumes the lender passes on the entire increase and recalculates repayments over the unchanged remaining term. Real loan rates, balances and lender policies vary.

What the RBA has actually said about November

On 21 October, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser spoke at Citi’s Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney. His central message was that the inflation outlook looked materially worse than the RBA’s August projections, even as higher interest rates were beginning to slow parts of the economy. He pointed to a prolonged Middle East energy shock, higher oil prices, technology- and AI-related demand, weak productivity and continuing domestic cost pressure.

Hauser also highlighted the difficulty of choosing between tighter policy to contain inflation expectations and protecting jobs and spending from further weakness. The Bank’s own forecasts were still being finalised. His remarks did not amount to a commitment to increase the cash rate. Read the official RBA transcript.

At the September meeting, the Monetary Policy Board unanimously lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points from 4.35% to 4.60%, effective 30 September. It described inflation as elevated and said it stood ready to respond as necessary. The RBA’s current target of 4.60% is a wholesale money-market policy rate, not the interest rate automatically charged on an individual household mortgage. Source: RBA monetary policy decision, 29 September.

When is the November 2026 RBA interest rate announcement?

The Monetary Policy Board meets on 2–3 November. The decision statement and updated Statement on Monetary Policy are scheduled for release on Tuesday 3 November at 2:30 pm AEDT, with a media conference at 3:30 pm. That is Melbourne Cup Day, but the meeting date is not evidence of the outcome.

Another key date arrives sooner: the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the September 2026 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday 28 October at 11:30 am AEDT. The RBA’s website showed annual headline inflation at 4.0% in August 2026, above its medium-term 2–3% target. The upcoming CPI figures and the Bank’s updated forecasts could influence the November deliberations. Source: ABS CPI release calendar.

How much would another 0.25% mortgage increase cost?

The table below models a 0.25 percentage-point increase in a variable mortgage interest rate, from an example 6.00% to 6.25% per annum. Every row assumes the same 25-year remaining term, monthly repayments, principal and interest, no changes to the loan balance or repayment frequency, and the full quarter-point passed on by the lender. Loan balances are hypothetical examples.

Calculation note: Results use the standard amortising-loan formula with nominal annual interest divided by 12 and 300 monthly payments. The monthly amounts shown are rounded to the nearest dollar; annual extra cost is calculated from the unrounded monthly difference then rounded separately, so multiplying the rounded monthly figure by 12 may differ slightly. This is an illustrative scenario, not an RBA forecast or lender quote.

What about interest-only home loans?

An interest-only loan reacts differently. On $600,000, a full 0.25-point rate increase adds about $125 per month in interest (600,000 × 0.0025 ÷ 12) while the interest-only period and balance remain unchanged. That is not the same as the approximately $92 increase in the principal-and-interest example. When an interest-only period ends and principal repayments resume, the payment can increase much more substantially even without another RBA move.

Does an RBA rate increase automatically mean your bank increases your mortgage rate?

No. RBA cash-rate moves influence banks’ funding costs and the wider lending market, but lenders decide their own variable mortgage rates, pass-through amounts and effective dates. Some may pass on the full 0.25%, others may change less, more or not at all depending on the product and commercial circumstances. A lender usually advises customers of a variable-rate change and may revise the minimum payment or the interest-versus-principal mix.

For a meaningful comparison, check your actual contracted interest rate, repayment amount, remaining balance, remaining term, offset-account balance and what type of loan you have. A cash rate of 4.60% does not mean your mortgage rate is 4.60%.

Fixed versus variable mortgages: who would be affected first?

Variable-rate borrowers may see repayments rise if their lender increases the rate, generally after the lender’s notified effective date. If the lender maintains the repayment amount temporarily, less principal may be repaid, so check how the loan’s balance and term are affected.

Fixed-rate borrowers generally continue paying the agreed fixed interest rate during the fixed period, even if the RBA raises the cash rate. The risk comes at expiry of the fixed term, when the loan may revert to a variable rate or be refinanced at a then-current fixed offer. Split mortgages require checking both components. Fixed products can impose extra-repayment limits or break costs. See ASIC MoneySmart’s fixed-versus-variable guidance.

Will the RBA increase rates on 3 November? The case for both outcomes

Why some economists think another rise is possible

Hauser’s remarks underline concern that higher imported fuel prices and local cost pressures could spread into inflation expectations. Technology and AI-related demand and weak productivity are also making the inflation outlook difficult. September’s rate increase followed earlier increases in February, March and May 2026, meaning the Bank has already tightened significantly this year. Another firm CPI reading on 28 October could strengthen the case for additional action.

Why the Bank might leave rates unchanged

The RBA must also consider weaker consumption, a cooling housing market, reduced credit growth and softer labour-market conditions. Higher rates already take time to flow through to household budgets and business spending. Rushing to tighten further could intensify that weakness. The Monetary Policy Board, not any one official or economist, will make the decision after considering updated evidence.

Market-implied probabilities and bank forecasts can change sharply and are not guarantees. Reporting after Hauser’s 21 October remarks said traders and economists had become more concerned about a possible November increase, while other analysts remained cautious. ABC News reports the debate. A claim that a rise is already confirmed would be incorrect as of 23 October.

What could another hike mean for property buyers and sellers?

Higher mortgage costs can reduce borrowing capacity and make monthly repayments more difficult for first-home buyers. They may also make investors reassess cash flow or sellers reconsider asking prices. However, property outcomes depend on local supply, income, employment, population growth and the type and location of the dwelling. No single RBA decision determines every suburb’s home prices.

The latest housing headlines reflect weakness in some city-wide indicators, but an individual buyer should still use comparable settled sales, lender assessments and independent legal and building advice. Compare purchase costs and repayments under several plausible future rates before bidding. NEXTNEWS recently examined the September 2026 capital-city house-price downturn.

Seven practical steps mortgage holders can take before 3 November

1. Check the current rate and loan type. Open your latest loan statement and record the actual variable rate, outstanding balance, repayment frequency and fixed-rate expiry date.
2. Stress-test the budget. Work out your repayment if the lender increases your mortgage rate by 0.25, 0.50 and 1.00 percentage points. Factor in childcare, school fees, insurance, utilities and transport costs, not only the loan.
3. Ask your existing lender for a better rate. Banks may have retention offers or lower-rate products for similar borrowers. Compare the offered rate, fees, features and any eligibility requirements.
4. Compare the total cost of refinancing. Review the comparison rate as well as the advertised rate, discharge and application fees, possible lender’s mortgage insurance, fixed-rate break costs, offset and redraw rules, and the new loan term. Saving on the advertised interest rate may not compensate for switching costs.
5. Avoid resetting the mortgage to a longer term without checking the cost. Lower monthly payments from a fresh 30-year term can mean more total interest. Compare refinancing quotes using the same remaining years when possible.
6. Review how your offset account works. An offset balance can reduce interest charged on eligible loans, but it does not necessarily reduce the required scheduled repayment. Check lender-specific terms before moving funds.
7. Seek help early if payments may become unaffordable. Contact your lender’s hardship team before missing a repayment. Australian borrowers can also seek free financial counselling; independent assistance may be especially valuable when comparing hardship or refinancing options.

ASIC MoneySmart recommends asking your existing lender to compete for your business, accounting for refinancing costs and watching for fixed-rate break fees or a longer replacement loan term. Read MoneySmart’s mortgage-switching guidance and use its mortgage switching calculator to test different assumptions.

What should you ask a mortgage broker before refinancing?

Request a written comparison setting out: the old and proposed interest rates; advertised rate versus comparison rate; annual and upfront fees; offset and redraw features; existing fixed-rate break costs; valuation or application charges; lenders mortgage insurance if applicable; minimum and projected repayments over the same remaining term; and the time required to recover switching costs. Ask whether the broker receives lender commissions and whether the proposed product suits your circumstances. A recommendation based solely on a lower headline rate can be misleading.

Frequently asked questions

Is the RBA raising rates in November 2026?

Not decided. As of 23 October, the cash rate is 4.60%. The next decision is due at 2:30 pm AEDT on 3 November. The article analyses a possible increase, not an announced one.

How much is a 0.25% increase on a $500,000 mortgage?

For the illustrative 25-year principal-and-interest loan at 6.00% rising to 6.25%, it is approximately $77 extra per month if the lender passes on the full rise. Your own result depends on balance, remaining term and contracted rate.

When will the latest inflation figures come out?

ABS has scheduled the September 2026 CPI release for 28 October at 11:30 am AEDT. It is important evidence ahead of the 3 November decision.

Should I fix my mortgage before the announcement?

There is no universally correct answer. Fixed-rate quotes may already reflect lenders’ expectations; fixed products can limit flexibility or charge break costs. Compare both scenarios and seek advice based on your circumstances rather than assuming a November increase is certain.

Could my mortgage cost rise even if the RBA holds rates?

Yes. Banks can change their products and pricing independently. Equally, an RBA rise does not guarantee full or immediate pass-through to every loan.

Featured image: Illustrative high-resolution photograph of residential rooftops by Maximillian Conacher / Unsplash. The photo does not depict the RBA meeting, a particular mortgage property or the subject of any rate decision.

Official sources and reader resources

• RBA: cash-rate target and next update
• RBA: Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s 21 October remarks
• RBA: 29 September monetary policy statement
• RBA: November decision and media conference times
• ABS: Consumer Price Index releases
• ASIC MoneySmart: comparing home loans
• ASIC MoneySmart: fixed vs variable
• ASIC MoneySmart: refinancing and switching costs

Disclaimer: This NEXTNEWS publication provides general news and educational information only. It is not personal financial, credit, tax, property, legal or investment advice. The repayment models are illustrative calculations using stated assumptions and are not lender quotes or forecasts. Seek independent advice from a qualified mortgage broker, financial adviser, credit professional or legal adviser appropriate to your circumstances. Information is current as of 23 October 2026 and may change after the ABS release or RBA decision.