Sustainable aviation fuel is expected to account for only 0.8 per cent of global airline fuel use in 2026, underscoring how far production must grow before it can materially reduce aviation emissions.
The International Air Transport Association estimates that worldwide SAF output will reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes this year. Although production has risen from about one million tonnes in 2024 and 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, growth is expected to slow during 2026.
A wide gap to the 2050 target
IATA says the sector may require around 500 million tonnes of SAF annually by 2050 to support its pathway to net-zero carbon emissions. That would mean increasing present production by more than 250 times over the coming decades.
Sustainable aviation fuel can be made from approved waste oils, biomass and synthetic processes. It is designed to work with existing aircraft and fuel infrastructure when blended within approved limits, making it one of the most important near-term tools for cutting lifecycle emissions from long-distance flying.
Cost remains a major barrier
Airlines are expected to spend an additional US$4.3 billion on SAF purchases in 2026. Limited supply, production costs and regional policy requirements contribute to the price difference between sustainable fuel and conventional jet fuel.
IATA argues that governments should sequence incentives and mandates carefully to expand production. The organisation also points to the need for investment in renewable energy, sustainable feedstocks and new e-fuel facilities.
What this means for travellers
SAF availability does not mean that an individual flight is powered entirely by sustainable fuel. Airlines may buy SAF through physical supply arrangements or recognised accounting systems, and programmes differ across carriers and airports.
Travellers comparing airline environmental claims should look for transparent reporting, recognised standards and clear explanations of how emissions reductions are calculated. Ticket prices, fuel surcharges and sustainability programmes can change as energy markets and regulations evolve.
Sources
- International Air Transport Association: Sustainable Aviation Fuel
- IATA: 2026 airline industry outlook
Disclaimer
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