Oil Above $100: Will Flights From Australia Get More Expensive This Summer?

Global oil prices remained above US$100 a barrel on 15 October 2026, while Australian airlines were already contending with much higher jet-fuel costs than earlier in the year. As travellers plan the 2026–27 summer holidays, the obvious question is whether flights from Australia—to Asia, New Zealand and domestic destinations—will become even more expensive.

The answer is that higher fuel prices increase the pressure on airfares, but they do not guarantee a price rise on every flight. Airline capacity, booking demand, the Australian dollar, competition, fuel hedging and the time of booking can have as much influence on the fare shown to a traveller.

Updated 16 October 2026. Oil-price quotations refer to an intraday benchmark on 15 October, rather than a live quote or a forecast. No specific airline ticket was independently priced for this article, so fares below are not presented as real-time offers.

Oil above US$100: what has happened?

International benchmark Brent crude traded at approximately US$104.91 a barrel at 11:57 GMT on 15 October, according to Reuters. The price was down on the day even though it remained historically elevated, amid possible changes to US restrictions on some Russian oil tankers and continued disruption to Middle Eastern shipping.

That distinction matters: “above $100” refers to US dollars per barrel of Brent crude, not the price of jet fuel, petrol, or a flight ticket. The Australian-dollar cost also depends on the AUD–USD exchange rate.

Risks around the Strait of Hormuz, tanker insurance and freight, refinery capacity and sanctions remain important for jet fuel. Oil benchmarks can fluctuate sharply, so a single quote should not be treated as the price prevailing throughout the summer.

What Australia’s competition regulator says about airline fuel costs

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s September 2026 airline monitoring release reported that jet-fuel prices were nearly 50% higher in late August than in February 2026. This is more directly relevant to airlines than crude oil alone because aircraft burn refined aviation turbine fuel.

The ACCC also reported strong full-year earnings from Australia’s two major airline groups despite the pressure: the Qantas Group recorded underlying earnings before interest and tax of approximately A$2.35 billion, down 11% from 2024–25, while Virgin Australia reported underlying earnings of A$753 million, up 13.4%.

Those results do not prove that airlines can absorb every future increase, or that every current fare is fair or excessive. They do show why airline revenue, costs and competition need to be considered together rather than assuming a direct one-to-one relationship between Brent prices and airfares.

The ACCC’s September domestic airline competition report explains that jet fuel costs and refining margins have moved differently from Brent. For example, the report found a July monthly average jet-fuel price of A$205.25 per barrel versus Brent crude averaging A$120.28 per barrel, in real terms. The months and units here are important; this is not an October pump price or live aviation fuel quote.

How expensive oil can flow through to airfares

Airlines face multiple costs: jet fuel, aircraft financing and leasing, labour, maintenance, airports, navigation charges, currency exposure and distribution. Fuel is usually among the largest variable components. When fuel becomes much dearer and stays high, airline management has several choices:

• Raise some fares: particularly for seats sold close to departure or on routes with strong demand.
• Adjust fuel surcharges or fees: where permitted and relevant to particular fare products, although many carriers use all-inclusive pricing.
• Cut capacity or change schedules: especially on routes that were barely profitable before the cost rise.
• Absorb part of the increase: accepting lower margins to compete or maintain market share.
• Use fuel hedging: contracts may smooth the timing of cost changes, but hedge protection and its coverage vary widely.

Reuters reported earlier in 2026 that a sharp escalation in jet-fuel prices had prompted airlines internationally to increase prices and revise financial expectations. The May aviation-industry survey is useful background, but it does not establish the price of a ticket on any particular Australian route in October.

Which Australian routes could face the most pressure?

Long-haul and fuel-intensive journeys have substantial total operating costs, but distance alone does not determine whether a fare will rise. An international route with several competing airlines may have stronger downward price pressure than a short domestic route with limited service.

Sydney and Melbourne to Southeast Asia

Routes to Singapore, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Bali, Ho Chi Minh City and other Asian cities may attract substantial holiday demand. Fares could rise if airlines pass through higher fuel costs and demand outstrips seats, but competition from full-service and low-cost carriers can constrain increases.

Compare nonstop and connecting services on an all-in cost basis. A connecting itinerary with a lower sticker price may become less attractive after checked bags, meals, transit requirements, insurance exclusions or an overnight stop.

Flights to Japan and New Zealand

Japan’s winter attractions and New Zealand’s summer holidays create seasonal demand patterns different from those in Southeast Asia. A fuel-price rise may add cost pressure, but peak-season dates, school holidays and aircraft capacity are often more important for individual fares.

Domestic flights around Australia

Airlines serving Cairns, the Gold Coast, Adelaide, Perth and regional centres face competition and capacity constraints that vary by route. Some smaller destinations have fewer competing services, meaning price differences can be substantial even when crude prices are unchanged.

Western Sydney International Airport is also due to begin passenger flights on 25 October 2026. Its launch adds another airport option for some travellers, but the cost of getting to WSI must be included when comparing deals with Sydney Kingsford Smith. See our Western Sydney Airport flights, parking and transport guide.

Could the Australian dollar make tickets more expensive?

Yes. International jet fuel, aircraft leases and many other aviation expenses are often priced in US dollars. If the Australian dollar weakens while US-dollar costs remain high, the Australian-dollar cost to airlines can increase.

The situation varies across airlines because their revenue currencies, hedging arrangements and cost bases differ. Foreign exchange is also relevant to travellers directly: an overseas hotel, rental car or tour booked in US dollars or local currency can cost more in Australian dollars even if the airline’s base fare does not change.

A simple illustration: a US$100 component converts to approximately A$143 at an exchange rate of US$0.70 per Australian dollar, versus A$154 at US$0.65. This is arithmetic only, not a forecast of the Australian dollar or an airline’s actual fuel contract.

Does buying earlier protect travellers from oil price rises?

Buying earlier can lock in an available fare, but it is not always the cheapest strategy. Airlines use dynamic pricing and sell different booking classes over time. Fares can fall in promotions and rise sharply for popular departure dates or as cheaper inventory sells out.

Travellers booking for December and January may benefit from checking a range of nearby dates and airports, but there is no universal rule that a ticket purchased on a particular weekday or exactly a certain number of weeks ahead is always cheapest.

Seven practical ways to compare 2026–27 summer flight prices

1. Search with flexible dates: compare the days before and after the intended departure and return, especially around school holidays.
2. Compare the full airfare: checked baggage, seat selection, meals and payment fees can alter the total.
3. Consider airport access: add parking, public transport, tolls, rideshare and time costs when comparing WSI and SYD.
4. Check multiple airports and routes: a nonstop journey may be worth a higher fare if a cheap self-transfer creates large missed-connection risks.
5. Use price alerts: monitor a preferred route rather than trusting a single screenshot or one advertised sale price.
6. Review rebooking terms: a cheaper basic ticket may have restrictive changes, credits or cancellation rights.
7. Verify entry and transit rules: official visa, passport and transit requirements can be more important than an apparent ticket bargain.

What about advertised fuel surcharges?

Not every Australian airline separately itemises a fuel surcharge. Where such charges exist, travellers should compare the total payable price, not assume the surcharge is an additional amount that can always be removed by choosing another airline. Applicable Australian consumer rules require that compulsory charges be reflected appropriately in advertised pricing.

If a flight has been booked, the airline generally cannot simply impose an unagreed increase to a confirmed fare outside the booking’s applicable terms and legal framework. However, differences between refundable and non-refundable tickets, schedule changes, travel-agent contracts and government charges can create different outcomes.

Read the ACCC’s travel and accommodation consumer guidance and the airline’s current conditions for information relevant to your booking.

Three plausible scenarios for summer 2026–27

Scenario	Potential airfare impact	What travellers should watch
Oil prices ease and jet-fuel costs stabilise	Some pressure on margins may ease, but ticket prices need not fall immediately	Fare promotions, competition and capacity additions
Oil stays elevated near current levels	Pressure remains, especially on routes with strong demand or limited seats	Booking-class availability, holiday peaks and exchange rates
Fresh supply or shipping disruption pushes refined fuel higher	Further fare increases or capacity cuts become possible, but not inevitable	New airline disclosures, schedule changes and route-specific fares

These are illustrative possibilities, not numerical fare forecasts. NextNews has not independently verified current live fares on individual routes, so it would be misleading to claim that December 2026 tickets have already risen by a stated percentage because of oil alone.

Frequently asked questions

Is Brent crude the same price airlines pay for fuel?

No. Aircraft use refined jet fuel. Refinery margins, transport, quality standards, regional supply and exchange rates mean the jet-fuel price can move differently from Brent crude.

Will a fall in oil prices immediately make flights cheaper?

Not necessarily. Airlines price tickets dynamically and may already have fuel purchase and hedging arrangements. Airline capacity and demand also matter.

Should I book Christmas flights now?

There is no universal answer. Compare actual all-in fares, flexibility, budget and the consequences of waiting. Peak travel dates can become expensive as seat availability changes.

Are flights to Bali and Thailand guaranteed to rise?

No. Elevated fuel costs create upward pressure, but competition and airline capacity can offset that on some routes and dates.

The NextNews takeaway

Oil above US$100 keeps the pressure on aviation costs, and the ACCC confirms that airlines have already experienced substantially higher jet-fuel prices this year. But Australian travellers should focus on route-specific total prices rather than assume a blanket airfare increase. For summer holidays, the most useful combination is flexible dates, all-in comparisons, price alerts and independent checks of airport and booking conditions.

Read our Asia summer flights comparison guide and the related NextNews coverage of oil prices and Australian inflation.

AI-generated image created for NextNews. The editorial illustration of aircraft refuelling and an airport at sunset is conceptual, not an image of a particular airline, airport or specific incident.

Sources and methodology

• ACCC, 15 September 2026: Airline earnings and higher jet-fuel costs
• ACCC: Domestic Airline Competition in Australia, September 2026
• ACCC: Scope and methodology of domestic airline monitoring
• Reuters, 15 October: Brent crude price and shipping risks
• Reuters: International airline fuel-cost responses earlier in 2026
• ACCC: Consumer protections for travel bookings

Independent advice disclaimer: This article provides general travel, consumer and economic information, not individual financial, travel, legal, investment or insurance advice. Oil benchmarks and flight prices change continuously; figures shown here are historical observations or illustrations, not live quotes or guaranteed future airfares. Verify airline prices, booking conditions, entry requirements and consumer protections from official sources, and seek independent qualified advice where relevant. See the NextNews disclaimer.